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If you have played fantasy nascar awhile , then there probably a good chance that Paul Menard have burned you. If you have recently started to play fantasy nascar , don't worry. The Nard dog will find you. Menard usually find bad luck at the worst times. More specifically , he have a bad habit of turning a good car into a poor finish.
On the flip side , Menard is known to take a crappy car and score a respectable top 10 from time to time. To me Menard is unpredictable and most seasons a streaky driver. Also Menard have a bad habit of finishing well in the first 12 races before bottoming out. Usually his best days will be on Intermediate racetracks.
Intermediate racetracks will likely be the places he have any kind of fantasy relevancy. Las Vegas stands out in the past few seasons as his best high-speed Intermediate racetrack. Had a car capable of winning last season. Real bullet on the long run in that race. Kansas probably his second best track. 10.75 average finish and 3 Top 10s in previous four races. 90.8 Driver rating not too shabby either.
Menard also shown promise on larger Intermediate tracks. Michigan stands out as his best racetrack over the past 2 seasons. In past 4 races , Menard have 3 Top 5s and 6.5 average finish. 99.5 driver rating suggests he didn't luck into them. Auto Club also isn't a bad place for Menard. He have an 8.5 average finish and 2 Top 10s in past two races.
Short tracks will be questionable in 2015. Past few seasons , he haven't been terrible. Unfortunately he haven't been great either. Bristol probably Menard best short track. In the past 4 races , Menard have an 11.2 average finish and 3 Top 10s. Menard doesn't get enough credit at Bristol. When we go to Bristol his name rarely comes up. Richmond and Martinsville pretty identical least stats wise. I believe Menard pretty underrated at both venues. Expect teen-like results at both tracks.
On Flats some of worse results will be recorded. But he will have his opportunies to shine, too. His best shorter flat track probably would be New Hampshire. He's have an 18.2 average finish in his past 4 races. 73.9 driver rating backs it up. Phoenix is his second best flat. His average finish is an 20.5 over his past 4 races. His best result in that span was 16th.
Larger Flats been more kind however. Since winning at Indy in 2011 , Menard have actually found decent success. 4 Of his 7 other races at Indy have resulted in 20th or better. Unfortunately he also have finishes of 34th , 41st and 29th. In fact , before last season dust up with Juan Pablo Montoya. He had finish of 14th , 1st , 14th and 12th from 2010 - 2013 races at IMS.
When we talk underrated at Pocono , I think automatically of Paul Menard. The average Nascar fan would say Menard terrible at Pocono judging by initial stats. But that inaccurate. From June 2010 to August 2012 , Menard had finishes of 16,13,14,10,9 and 11. Which is an 12.1 average finish.
Previous four races , Menard have an average finish of 30.2 with finishes of 33,26,30 and 32. All four finishes have an logically explanation though. June 2013 Menard had a flat on the final lap while running competitively running in the low teens. August 2013 , he was involved in a wreck. June 2014 Menard was running about 10th before experiencing an mechanically issue late in the event. August 2014 another wreck. If anything bad luck.
Road courses likely won't be in Menard strengths. But I am starting to see a positive trend at Sonoma. In 4 career races with RCR , Menard have an 14.0 average finish. Including finishes of 5th and 14th last two seasons. Not great , but not terrible either. Watkins Glenn however been at best interesting. Since joining RCR , Menard have an 23.2 average finish. Looking at the numbers , he have had two terrible results of 32nd (twice). Other two races been respectable with 17th and 12th. Again not terrible. You could do a lot worse.
Restrictor Plate Tracks will mostly be hit or miss. Past two seasons , Menard have been so-and-so. He had 1 Top 5 in 2013 and other three finishes of 43,26 and 21. Similar in 2014 , only 1 Top 10. Other three races he had finishes of 36,16 and 32. I expect a similar outcome in 2015.
Menard most weeks won't deliver an top notch finish , but he definitely have plenty of unseen (or overlooked) fantasy value. The key with Menard is using him at the right time. Menard will likely have the most value in the first 12 races. Beyond that you're playing with house money. Never know when the house will cash in. Intermediate tracks are the preferred tracks to use him at. His worse days will come on Restrictor Plate Tracks of Daytona and Talladega.
Twitter - @JeffNathans